需求有望保持增长态势 纸浆重心将逐步上移

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market has shown a warming trend since the beginning of the year, with the pulp futures market experiencing a relatively flat performance compared to the strong rise in non-ferrous metals and new energy products. The potential for pulp prices to break out of the current range and enter a low valuation recovery phase is under discussion as macroeconomic recovery becomes more evident [1]. Supply Overview - In 2025, global pulp supply is expected to face a tight-to-loose pattern, with new production capacity offsetting reductions. No new pulp lines are expected to be commissioned overseas, while significant reductions are anticipated, particularly in hardwood pulp. Domestic production capacity is projected to increase by approximately 1.7 million tons, mainly in softwood, hardwood, and chemical pulp [1]. - By the third quarter of 2025, major domestic players like Chenming Paper will gradually resume production, balancing the annual capacity increase with maintenance shutdowns [1]. - In 2026, global pulp production pressure is expected to emerge in the second half, primarily from new projects in Indonesia and domestic chemical pulp plans. However, supply constraints from North American and Nordic mills will continue to impact the market [1]. Shipment Volume - In 2025, the shipping pressure for wood pulp is significant, with global hardwood pulp shipments remaining high while softwood pulp shipments rebounded in the third quarter after a decline in the second quarter. Notably, shipments to China have increased [2]. - From January to November 2025, global shipments of bleached softwood pulp increased by 0.6% year-on-year, while bleached hardwood pulp shipments rose by 7.7% [2]. - For 2026, limited new overseas capacity and potential delays in some projects are expected to ease shipping pressures, with hardwood pulp inventory levels remaining manageable [2]. Production and Profitability - The paper industry has faced low profitability due to rapid capacity expansion and insufficient demand. Major paper manufacturers have been pressured by rising costs, leading to production cuts in some cases [2]. - In 2025, the introduction of new capacities for white card and double offset paper has added pressure to the market, resulting in low profits for these products. Overall production has not significantly increased despite the capacity additions [3]. - The production of various paper types showed mixed results from January to November 2025, with double offset paper and coated paper experiencing declines, while life paper and white card paper saw growth [3]. Demand Outlook - Domestic demand for pulp is expected to continue growing, supported by rigid demand from the downstream paper industry. The market for finished paper remains divided, with cultural paper demand weak due to demographic changes, while white card paper is expected to see continued support from domestic and export needs [4]. - Life paper demand is projected to grow steadily due to increased per capita usage and diverse applications [4]. Market Trends - The pulp supply-demand imbalance is expected to ease in 2026, with clear signals of a market bottom and a gradual upward shift in long-term price levels. Global hardwood pulp inventories are healthy, and domestic production is set to contribute reasonable supply increments [6]. - However, the overall demand growth is expected to slow down due to excess finished paper supply, low operating rates in paper mills, and cautious purchasing attitudes, which may dampen short-term demand release [6].