中金：首次覆盖佳鑫国际资源予“跑赢行业”评级 目标价95港元 坚定看好公司运营机制及发展潜能

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Jaxin International Resources (03858) is focused on the operation of the Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan and is expected to perform well, with an initial coverage rating of "outperform" and a target price of HKD 95.00 based on P/E valuation methods, corresponding to 22.6x and 14.8x P/E for 2026-2027 [1] Group 2 - The global tungsten supply-demand pattern is expected to remain tight, with tungsten prices likely to steadily increase. The supply side shows a strong scarcity of global tungsten supply, with China consistently holding the largest share of production. Domestic supply is facing contraction pressures due to declining ore grades and stricter production regulations, while overseas tungsten mine development is generally slow. The forecast for global tungsten supply from 2023 to 2028 is a CAGR of +2.4% [2] - On the demand side, emerging needs from photovoltaic tungsten wires, AI PCBs, and large infrastructure projects are expected to boost domestic tungsten consumption. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical conflicts may trigger strategic stockpiling demands. The forecast for global tungsten consumption from 2023 to 2028 is a CAGR of +2.7% [2] - The company has four core advantages that position it as a highly competitive mining leader in the Central Asian region: 1) High-quality resources with large reserves and low costs at the Bakuta tungsten mine; 2) Favorable location with excellent transportation and a supportive business environment in Kazakhstan; 3) Effective operational mechanisms through a mixed ownership structure and management team; 4) Strong growth potential in capacity expansion, deep processing, and resource accumulation [3] Group 3 - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be HKD 0.63, HKD 4.18, and HKD 6.56 for 2025-2027, with a CAGR of 221.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 2.6 billion, RMB 17.2 billion, and RMB 26.3 billion for the same period. The current stock price corresponds to 16.5x and 10.5x P/E for 2026-2027, with an initial coverage rating of "outperform" and a target price of HKD 95, indicating a potential upside of 38% [4]