Ge Long Hui·2026-01-19 01:27Group 1: Hong Kong IPO Market - The recent performance of Hong Kong IPOs has been mixed, with some companies like Tianri, MINI, Ruibo, and Birun being sold a day early, leading to missed opportunities for investors [1] - The analyst highlights the significant difference in subscription rates between Naxinwei (25 times) and Zhuoyue Ruixin (4813 times), suggesting that Naxinwei may offer better profitability despite lower demand [1] - The current batch of IPOs is limited, with Dragon Flag Technology being the only notable option, but it is expected to be difficult to acquire shares due to a discount greater than 40% [1] Group 2: Ctrip's Market Position and Regulatory Challenges - Ctrip is recognized as a leader in the online travel market, with a 60% growth in international business last year and a dominant share in the domestic online travel agency market [4] - The company is currently under investigation for monopolistic practices, which has led to a significant drop in its stock price [4][6] - Despite the regulatory challenges, Ctrip's financial health remains strong, with substantial cash reserves that can absorb potential fines estimated at 4 billion RMB [6] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - The A-share market has shown resilience with a record high in margin financing, indicating strong investor sentiment despite recent declines [3] - The experience from previous regulatory actions against companies like Alibaba and Meituan suggests that the stock price may experience a temporary drop of 20%-40% before stabilizing [6] - The importance of patience in investment is emphasized, as good opportunities often arise after periods of volatility and negative sentiment [6]