奔驰、宝马销量跌回十年前，押注“本土化”背水一战

Core Viewpoint - The BBA (Benz, BMW, Audi) brands are experiencing significant sales declines in China, with projections indicating a return to sales levels not seen in a decade, highlighting the increasing pressure from domestic competitors and changing market dynamics [1][2][4]. Sales Performance - In 2025, Benz's global sales are projected to be 2.16 million units, a 10% decrease year-on-year, with sales in China at 551,900 units, down 19% [1]. - BMW's global sales are expected to reach 2.46 million units, a slight increase of 0.5%, while its Chinese sales are forecasted at 625,500 units, a decline of 12.5% [1]. - Audi's global sales are projected at 1.62 million units, down 2.9%, with Chinese sales at 617,500 units, a decrease of 5% [1]. - BBA brands have seen consecutive sales declines in China for two years, dropping to levels last seen in 2017 [1]. Market Dynamics - By 2026, both Benz and BMW are expected to forecast annual sales of less than 500,000 units in China, reverting to sales levels from a decade ago [2]. - Domestic high-end brands are setting ambitious sales targets, with NIO aiming for 456,400 to 489,000 units, Xiaomi targeting 550,000 units, and Hongmeng Zhixing projecting 1 to 1.3 million units by 2026 [3]. Financial Performance - BBA brands reported significant profit declines in recent financial statements, with Benz's net profit down 50%, Audi's down 25%, and BMW's down 6.8% [4]. Pricing Strategies - BMW initiated a price reduction across 31 models, with discounts reaching up to 301,000 yuan, indicating market pressure [6]. - The luxury car pricing structure is under significant strain, with reports of discounts reaching as low as 60-70% on various models [6]. Competitive Landscape - The BBA brands face intense competition from domestic brands that are rapidly gaining market share, particularly in the high-end segment [8]. - The shift towards electric and smart vehicles has left BBA brands lagging, as their products are often based on older platforms, leading to a competitive disadvantage [7][8]. Strategic Responses - BBA brands are beginning to adapt to the Chinese market by enhancing their product offerings and integrating local technology solutions [9][10]. - Benz plans to launch over 15 new models by 2026, while BMW aims to introduce around 20 new products, focusing on electric and smart vehicle technologies [10][11].