从美债减持到比特币“宏观资产化”：2026 年的风险重启逻辑

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift in global capital seeking value anchors that do not rely on sovereign credit, with Bitcoin being redefined as a macro asset alongside the decline of U.S. Treasury holdings by China [3][4][5]. - China has reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings for nine consecutive months, signaling not just a geopolitical maneuver but the end of an era, indicating a structural shift in trust towards global reserve assets [3][4]. - The decline in U.S. Treasury holdings marks a turning point from "unipolar trust" to "decentralized holding," with the dollar's share in global reserves dropping to approximately 57%, the lowest in thirty years [4][5]. Group 2 - Bitcoin is being positioned as a digital counterpart to gold, characterized by its non-sovereign and non-credit nature, making it an attractive safe haven as trust in U.S. Treasury credit erodes [4][5]. - In 2026, Bitcoin is expected to exhibit three macro characteristics: a complete shift in pricing logic, deep institutionalization, and a focus on its role as a digital macro asset rather than merely a speculative instrument [5]. - The market is preparing for a systemic risk preference rebound in 2026, with Bitcoin serving as a hedge against systemic monetary risks and absorbing new global liquidity, thus amplifying its impact during risk recovery phases [5]. Group 3 - The article notes that Bitcoin's price volatility is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy and geopolitical conflicts, rather than solely on-chain data [5][8]. - The inflow of over $21 billion into spot ETFs and corporate reserves exceeding 1.1 million BTC indicates a shift in capital entry methods, moving away from retail purchases to more structured financial mechanisms [7]. - Despite the macro narrative, the article emphasizes the need for caution, as the transition in trust is complex and not guaranteed to follow a linear growth pattern [5][8].