花旗：2026美股、利率、通胀等投资展望标普成长股或17%，美政策利率或降至2.5%以下

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that growth stocks in the U.S. still have room for performance, with an expected return of approximately 17% for the S&P 500 growth stocks and up to 21% for the S&P 600 small-cap value stocks [1] - The U.S. monetary policy has room for easing, with the Federal Reserve potentially lowering the policy rate to below 2.5% by 2026, while the European Central Bank is expected to maintain its policy rate at 2% at least until 2027 [1] - Inflation trends indicate that the overall consumer price index in the U.S. may approach zero growth by 2026, with core personal consumption expenditure inflation continuing to decline, although medium to long-term inflation risk premiums may still rise [1] Group 2 - In the commodities market, there is an optimistic outlook for aluminum prices, with a target range of $3,500 to $4,000 per ton; the natural gas market is facing supply pressures, with an estimated price of €22 per megawatt-hour for European TTF natural gas by 2027 [1] - In the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar is expected to remain relatively strong in the first half of 2026, with the euro to dollar exchange rate potentially falling to 1.1; emerging market currencies may perform well in a globally moderate risk scenario [1]