Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) Chang Jiang Shang Bao·2026-01-19 02:52Core Viewpoint - The company Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) is expected to face significant profit declines in 2025 due to the cyclical downturn in the pig industry, despite an increase in sales volume of pigs [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 3.18 billion to 2.18 billion yuan compared to 17.881 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.20% to 17.79% [3][4]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be between 15.1 billion to 16.1 billion yuan, down from 18.747 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a decrease of 3.647 billion to 2.647 billion yuan, or a decline of 14.12% to 19.45% [4]. Sales Volume and Pricing - In 2025, the company anticipates selling 77.981 million pigs, an increase of approximately 6.38 million pigs compared to 71.602 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.91% [4][5]. - The average selling price of pigs is expected to be around 13.5 yuan per kilogram, which is a decrease of approximately 17.3% compared to the previous year, significantly impacting overall profitability [4][5]. Cost Structure - The company's total breeding cost is projected to be around 11.6 yuan per kilogram by December 2025, indicating that the selling price has fallen below the cost line [5][6]. - The company maintains a competitive edge through its self-breeding model and integrated supply chain, which includes feed, breeding, slaughtering, and meat processing [7][12]. Strategic Initiatives - To counteract the cyclical downturn, the company is actively seeking international expansion, including establishing a wholly-owned subsidiary in Vietnam and investing 3.2 billion yuan in a high-tech breeding project [14]. - The company has also signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Charoen Pokphand Group (正大集团) to explore global collaboration in feed and slaughtering sectors [14]. Market Position - Muyuan Foods is the industry leader, with a sales volume of 77.981 million pigs in 2025, nearly double that of its closest competitor, Wens Foodstuffs Group (温氏股份), which sold 40.4769 million pigs [11]. - The company has invested significantly in research and development, with expenditures of 1.658 billion yuan, 1.747 billion yuan, and 1.263 billion yuan in 2023, 2024, and the first three quarters of 2025, respectively [12].