白银暴涨,光伏流泪

Core Insights - The cost of silver paste in photovoltaic (PV) modules has surged from 3.4% of total costs in 2023 to 29% currently, making it the largest cost component, surpassing silicon materials [1][3] - The rising silver prices have forced PV manufacturers to increase prices and accelerate plans to replace silver with cheaper materials like copper, with an expected 17% reduction in silver usage this year [1][7] Group 1: Cost Impact - A rise of 1000 yuan per kilogram in silver price increases the cost of solar cells by 0.01 yuan per watt, which is critical for the already thin profit margins in the PV industry [2] - The current silver consumption for TOPCon cells is approximately 10-13 mg/W, and if silver prices remain high, the cost from silver paste alone could reach 0.1-0.13 yuan per watt [3] Group 2: Price Adjustments - Chinese module manufacturers have raised prices by 1.4% to 3.8%, with mainstream 500W modules now priced around 400 yuan (approximately 57 USD) [3] - Leading companies like Longi Green Energy and Aiko Solar have recently increased their shipping prices, citing rising raw material costs [3] Group 3: Industry Challenges - Mid-tier companies are facing more severe challenges compared to leading firms, with some forced to halt production due to cash flow issues, financing difficulties, and inventory buildup [4][5] - A notable example includes a battery manufacturer in Hunan that ceased operations, stating there are currently no alternative solutions [6] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The surge in silver prices is attributed to a supply-demand imbalance, with industrial demand, including solar energy, accounting for 65% of total silver demand [6] - The silver usage in the PV industry represents over 15% of global silver production, with a projected supply-demand gap of 5,000 tons by 2025 [6] Group 5: Material Substitution Efforts - Companies like Longi Green Energy are accelerating the replacement of silver with cheaper metals, with predictions that the PV industry could reduce silver usage by 17% this year [7] - Some technological routes have the potential to lower silver content to 25%, theoretically achieving a 90% reduction [7] Group 6: Risks of Substitution - The aggressive substitution strategy carries significant risks, as the stability of copper is inferior to silver, leading to potential long-term liabilities for manufacturers if panels fail before the warranty period [8] - Current substitution methods face challenges such as unstable printing of paste and suboptimal yield rates [8]