Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-19 03:29Group 1: Core Insights - The report from Guojin Securities initiates coverage on China Aircraft Leasing (02588) with a "Buy" rating, projecting net profit for the company to be $750 million, $850 million, and $950 million for 2025-2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -19%, 13%, and 13% respectively. The decline in 2025 profit is attributed to a high base effect from a one-time reversal of impairment related to Russian aircraft in 2024 [1] - The aircraft leasing industry is experiencing an upward trend in demand, with IATA reporting that global airline RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) and ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) are expected to recover to 112% and 109% of 2019 levels by October 2025, respectively. This recovery is driving new aircraft purchases and leasing demand [2] - The company is a leading global aircraft operating lessor, ranked fifth in aircraft asset value as of Q2 2025 according to Cirium [1] Group 2: Operational Performance - The operating lease yield is expected to increase from 9.2% in 2022 to 10.3% in H1 2025, benefiting from rising rental prices and strong operational capabilities [3] - The company's fleet is projected to expand to 462 owned aircraft by the end of 2025, although the book value of aircraft assets has declined since 2021 due to impairments related to Russian aircraft and increased sale-leaseback transactions. However, the net asset value of aircraft is expected to recover steadily as aircraft deliveries stabilize [3] Group 3: Financial Position - The company benefits from a low financing cost, supported by its major shareholder, Bank of China, which provides a credit rating advantage. Fitch rated the company at A- in H1 2025 [4] - The average funding cost for the company was 4.6% in H1 2025, which is lower compared to some peers, with approximately 30%-40% of liabilities being floating-rate debt. The company's floating-rate debt costs are expected to decline further following three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 [4]