锐财经丨外汇市场韧性不断增强

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China is projected to reach a trading volume of $42.6 trillion by 2025, with the corporate foreign exchange hedging ratio increasing to 30% [1][4] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable foreign exchange market amidst complex external conditions, aiming to enhance the reform and opening-up of the foreign exchange sector [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, total cross-border income and expenditure for enterprises and individuals is expected to reach $15.6 trillion, reflecting a nearly 10% increase from 2024 [2] - The net inflow of cross-border funds is projected at $302.1 billion, with a bank settlement surplus of $196.6 billion [2] - By the end of 2025, foreign exchange reserves are anticipated to remain stable at $33,579 billion, with the RMB exchange rate maintaining basic stability at a reasonable level [2] Group 2: Policy and Reform - SAFE has implemented 28 measures across three key areas: supporting stable foreign trade development, deepening cross-border investment and financing reforms, and supporting the construction of free trade pilot zones [3] - The number of banks participating in foreign exchange business reform has expanded from 16 at the end of 2024 to 30, covering major banks involved in cross-border transactions [3] - In 2025, cross-border payment transactions under corporate instructions are expected to reach $23 trillion, a 33% increase from 2024 [3] Group 3: Risk Management - There is a growing demand among enterprises to identify and manage exchange rate risks due to increased volatility in international financial markets [4] - SAFE is enhancing services for corporate exchange rate risk management, with over 120 banks offering foreign exchange derivatives and improving online trading mechanisms [4] - The scale of enterprises using foreign exchange derivatives for risk management is projected to exceed $1.9 trillion in 2025, nearly doubling since 2020 [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The foreign exchange market in China is expected to operate steadily in 2026, with cross-border capital flows remaining orderly and resilient [6][7] - The economic foundation is strengthening, and there is a commitment to high-level opening-up, which will support the expansion of cross-border trade and investment [7] - The RMB exchange rate marketization mechanism is continuously improving, contributing to supply-demand balance stability [7]