成交“翘尾”，一线城市房价降幅收窄 | 2025中国经济扫描

Core Viewpoint - The data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that the decline in housing prices in first-tier cities has narrowed, suggesting a potential recovery in the real estate market [2][3] Group 1: First-tier Cities - In December 2025, new residential prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3%, a reduction of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while second-hand residential prices fell by 0.9%, narrowing by 0.2 percentage points [2] - The transaction volumes for new homes in December 2025 were as follows: Beijing at 440,000 square meters, Shanghai at 1,040,000 square meters, Guangzhou at 720,000 square meters, and Shenzhen at 220,000 square meters, with month-on-month increases of 56%, 81%, 28%, and 21% respectively [3] - Shanghai's new home prices increased by 0.2% in December 2025, making it the only first-tier city to see a price rise, while its second-hand home prices decreased by 0.6%, a reduction that was less than other first-tier cities [3] Group 2: Second and Third-tier Cities - In December 2025, second-tier cities saw new home prices decrease by 0.4% and second-hand prices drop by 0.7%, with both declines widening by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4] - Third-tier cities experienced a similar trend, with new home prices down by 0.4% and second-hand prices down by 0.7%, the latter also reflecting a widening decline [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - The overall housing market remains under pressure for price stability, with high inventory levels and a decrease in the willingness of homeowners to lower prices, despite a reduction in new listings [4] - The upcoming January market performance is critical for the first quarter, as the timing of the traditional sales season has shifted due to the later Spring Festival in 2026 [4] - Recent policy measures, including historically low mortgage rates, have led to increased engagement from potential buyers, particularly among families with multiple children and new residents [5]