东方财富证券：寒潮叠加供给扰动 煤价春节前或易涨难跌

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that coal prices are expected to rebound due to a combination of factors including low daily consumption, limited supply growth, and an anticipated improvement in supply-demand dynamics before the Spring Festival [1][3]. - In December, coal imports in China increased significantly to 58.6 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.9%, but the overall annual imports decreased by 9.6% to 490 million tons [2]. - The report highlights that the supply side is expected to remain constrained due to factors such as "anti-involution" policies and safety regulations, while demand is projected to be relatively stable, potentially leading to a shift from a loose supply-demand situation to a more balanced or tight one [2][3]. Group 2 - As of January 16, coal prices at Qinhuangdao port were reported at 697 RMB per ton, showing a slight increase of 0.1% week-on-week but a significant decrease of 8.3% year-on-year [3]. - The average daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 6.2 million tons, down 1.1% year-on-year, while average inventory levels were 127.15 million tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year [3]. - The report indicates that the first round of price increases for coke has begun, with an increase of 50-55 RMB per ton, while the main coking coal price remains stable at 1,770 RMB per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.4% [4]. Group 3 - The report suggests that companies such as Lu'an Environmental Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and Shanxi Coal International are worth monitoring due to their potential benefits from the evolving coal market dynamics [6]. - It is recommended to pay attention to companies that may benefit from coal capacity reserve policies, safety improvements, and the Belt and Road Initiative, such as Zhongchuang Zhiling and Tiandi Technology [6].