全球央行竞购，黄金储备新高

Core Insights - The global official gold reserves reached approximately $3.69 trillion by the end of Q3 2025, accounting for 28.9% of total official reserves, marking the highest level since 2000 [4][20][12] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.92%, the lowest since 1995, continuing a trend of being below 60% for over ten consecutive quarters [7][20] - China's central bank has been actively increasing its gold reserves, with a total of 7.415 million ounces (approximately 2306.32 tons) as of the end of December 2025, marking the 14th consecutive month of gold accumulation [3][10] Global Gold Reserve Trends - Global central banks have been net buyers of gold for 15 consecutive years, with significant purchases recorded in 2022 (1081.9 tons), 2023 (1050.8 tons), and 2024 (1044.6 tons) [5][14] - Emerging market central banks, particularly from Turkey and China, have been the primary drivers of gold purchases, with Turkey buying 148 tons in 2022 and China leading in 2023 with 225 tons [5][16] - The total gold purchases by central banks in the first three quarters of 2025 amounted to 634 tons, indicating a strong demand despite a slight decrease compared to previous years [6][15] Shifts in Reserve Asset Composition - The increasing share of gold in global reserves reflects a strategic shift among central banks towards diversifying away from dollar-denominated assets, driven by geopolitical tensions and the need for risk management [7][19] - The World Gold Council's survey indicated that over 90% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in 2026, with more than 70% anticipating a decline in the dollar's share of global reserves over the next five years [27][28] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The gold market is expected to remain robust, with predictions of continued price increases due to central bank purchases and macroeconomic factors such as U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical risks [8][28] - Analysts forecast that central bank gold purchases will remain a long-term trend, with expectations of around 755 tons in 2026, despite a decrease from the peak levels seen in 2022-2024 [28][33] - The potential for gold price volatility exists, particularly if retail investor behavior shifts, but central bank demand is expected to provide a stabilizing influence on the market [30][32]