有色牛市难结束，有色金属ETF基金(516650)今年规模增幅108.7%

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold, copper, and aluminum are rising, indicating a strong performance in the precious and industrial metals sector, with expectations of a super cycle similar to 2006-2007 driven by AI and industrial metal demand [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 19, gold ETF Huaxia (518850) increased by 1.4%, and the industrial metals ETF (516650) rose by 0.94% [1] - The copper price has reached a historical high, although the London copper market may not see significant upward movement [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global major mines are experiencing frequent accidents, leading to an expected reduction of 200,000 tons in supply by Q4 2025, translating to a quarterly decrease of approximately 3%-4% in copper production [1] - The macroeconomic environment, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to support copper prices, with a forecasted continued depreciation of the US dollar [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Copper is identified as a key metal for energy transition, holding strategic value under the "14th Five-Year Plan" policy guidance [1] - The strong supply-demand fundamentals, along with ongoing macro policy support in China, are likely to stimulate sectors such as electric infrastructure, new energy vehicles, and home appliance consumption [1] Group 4: ETF Fund Performance - The industrial metals ETF (516650) tracks the CSI segmented industrial metals theme index, with a combined gold, copper, and aluminum content of 61.29%, the highest in the market [2] - The fund has seen significant capital inflow, with its latest scale reaching 13.77 billion, an increase of over 71.7 billion from the end of 2025, representing a year-to-date growth rate of over 108.7%, leading the sector [2]