1月过半镁价先涨后跌 情绪趋弱

Core Viewpoint - The magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi has experienced an overall price increase in early January, with a rise from 15,800 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton, marking a 5.38% increase, although the price trend shows signs of fluctuation and adjustment due to cost, demand, and inventory factors [3]. Cost Support Effect - At the beginning of the year, magnesium prices fell to the critical cost point for some magnesium producers, leading to losses for certain companies. However, the stabilization of prices for key raw materials like ferrosilicon and coal has alleviated cost pressures for magnesium producers, providing support for price increases [4]. Demand Surge - The demand for magnesium alloys is on a continuous upward trend, with an expected increase of 7,000 tons in production by December 2025. Major companies are experiencing full order books, driven by the automotive lightweighting policies that enhance the application of magnesium alloys in vehicles and electric two-wheelers. However, traders remain cautious, with limited purchasing activity focused on essential needs, leading to a slight price correction mid-month [5]. Inventory Dynamics - Previously, inventory levels were low, and some magnesium producers halted production due to operational losses, significantly reducing the available market supply. The inventory structure has improved, particularly with large manufacturers in regions like Fugu and Shenmu concentrating their stock, which has supported magnesium prices [6]. Market Sentiment Shift - Following a rapid price increase, a bearish sentiment has developed in the market, with end-users adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach. The selling behavior of intermediaries has notably lowered transaction prices [7]. Comprehensive Analysis - Magnesium prices are expected to continue a fluctuating downward trend, with potential for further declines. This is primarily due to increasing inventory pressure ahead of the Spring Festival, stagnant downstream demand, and increased selling by manufacturers to alleviate financial pressures [9].