高盛解读特朗普“房改”：美国春季楼市或回暖，但机构禁令“雷声大雨点小”

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. real estate market may be on the verge of recovery after three years of low transactions, driven by a series of policy measures from the Trump administration aimed at breaking the market deadlock, including a $200 billion mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchase plan that has reduced mortgage rates by 15 basis points, injecting vitality into the upcoming spring home buying season [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Measures and Market Impact - The Trump administration is implementing multiple measures to address the challenges in the real estate market, which has been hindered by high mortgage rates and home prices, leading to the lowest affordability levels in decades. These measures include a large-scale MBS purchase plan, a proposed ban on institutional investors buying homes, and other initiatives aimed at lowering home buying costs [1]. - Goldman Sachs analysts noted that these policies have had a tangible impact on the market, with mortgage rates having decreased by approximately 80 basis points since June of last year, and they expect home sales in 2026 to increase by at least 5-7% compared to 2025 [1][3]. Group 2: MBS Purchase Plan Details - On January 8, Trump announced a directive for the purchase of $200 billion in mortgage bonds, confirmed by Director Pulte and Treasury Secretary Basant, to be executed by government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The MBS market has quickly absorbed this positive news, with current coupon spreads narrowing by about 14-15 basis points, bringing mortgage rates close to their lowest levels since September 2022 [2]. - Goldman Sachs believes that the narrowing of spreads aligns with the scale of the purchase plan, indicating that the market has fully priced in this development [2]. Group 3: Institutional Investor Ban - Another significant housing policy announced by Trump is the plan to ban institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes, aimed at reducing competition for individual buyers and increasing supply while lowering prices. However, Goldman Sachs assesses that the national impact of this policy is relatively limited, as institutional investors own less than 0.5% of total housing stock and about 2-3% of rental housing stock [4]. - The rental housing market is primarily dominated by small investors, who own approximately 79% of rental units. The policy may have a slightly larger impact in urban areas where institutional investors are more prominent [4].