Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-19 06:47Core Viewpoint - Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham warns that artificial intelligence (AI) is a classic market bubble waiting to burst, similar to past bubbles like the 2000 internet bubble and the 2008 financial crisis [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Grantham emphasizes that the only consistently reliable investment strategy is to buy assets when they are cheap, aligning with classic value investing principles [1] - Current high prices in AI-related stocks, driven by capital expenditure and market enthusiasm, suggest that future returns may be lower [1] - Grantham compares the current AI boom to transformative technologies of the past, indicating that it is the basis for a "huge bubble" [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Despite concerns about the AI bubble, Grantham remains optimistic about opportunities in the venture capital space rather than the public markets [2] - Grantham has previously warned that the AI sector will eventually face a collapse, similar to other transformative technologies that have experienced bubbles [2] - A Deutsche Bank survey indicated that over half of the 440 asset managers surveyed view the AI bubble as a major concern for 2026 [2] Group 3: Broader Market Concerns - Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warns that the AI-driven surge in tech stocks is entering the early stages of a bubble [3] - Bernstein Advisory Company highlights that excess liquidity is pushing asset prices beyond fundamental support levels, indicating a "broad frenzy" in the market [3] - The current market bubble extends beyond AI, affecting cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, SPACs, and various bond categories, driven by loose monetary and fiscal policies [3] Group 4: Diverging Opinions - Some market participants, such as Bank of America strategists, claim they have not observed any signs of an AI bubble, suggesting that the global AI arms race is still in its early to mid-stages [4] - Vanguard notes that the AI investment cycle may have only reached 30%-40% of its peak, although risks of a pullback in large tech stocks are acknowledged [4] - Coatue Management's founder argues that the current AI investment wave differs from the internet bubble due to the strong cash flows of major tech companies, which are expected to invest over $500 billion in AI infrastructure [5]