去年消费支出对经济增长贡献率为52%

Core Insights - Service consumption is expected to be a significant highlight in China's economic performance by 2025, with a steady expansion of the consumption market and continuous optimization of its structure [1] - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth is projected to be 52%, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous year, making it the main driver of economic growth [1] Group 1: Service Consumption - In 2025, service retail sales are anticipated to grow by 5.5% year-on-year, outpacing goods retail sales by 1.7 percentage points [1] - The proportion of service consumption expenditure in per capita consumption is expected to reach 46.1% in 2025, indicating a shift towards a balanced consumption of goods and services [1] Group 2: Online and New Retail - Online retail sales are projected to increase by 8.6% in 2025, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 5.2%, accounting for 26.1% of total social retail sales [2] - New retail models such as unmanned stores and warehouse membership stores are maintaining double-digit growth rates [2] Group 3: Consumer Trends and Policies - The 2026 outlook indicates strong support for continued consumption growth, driven by a large consumer market of 1.4 billion people and ongoing implementation of consumption-boosting policies [3] - The "old for new" policy will continue in 2026, with an initial allocation of 62.5 billion yuan in long-term special bonds to support consumption [3]