供需格局重塑 多晶硅大概率延续区间震荡

Core Viewpoint - The multi-crystalline silicon market experienced a two-phase price trend in 2025, with initial declines followed by a recovery driven by policy changes and demand surges in the photovoltaic sector [1][2]. Phase One: Price Decline and Stabilization - In the first phase, market sentiment was pessimistic, leading to a decline in both spot and futures prices, approaching the cash cost line of leading companies [1]. - A consensus on production cuts was reached in December 2024, which slowed the price decline and stabilized the market [1]. - Key policies implemented in February 2025, such as the management measures for distributed photovoltaic power generation, triggered a "rush to install" in the first half of 2025, temporarily boosting supply and demand [1]. - By April 2025, as the rush subsided, futures prices stabilized but faced downward pressure due to tariff policies [1]. Phase Two: Price Recovery - The second phase saw a reversal in industry expectations due to a series of "anti-involution" policies, leading to a strong increase in spot prices and an upward trend in futures prices [2]. - By December 2025, the average transaction price for N-type multi-crystalline silicon had reached 53,900 yuan per ton, significantly up from early July [2]. - The cost range for the industry in 2025 was between 40,300 to 42,900 yuan per ton, with current spot prices exceeding this range, indicating a strong support level for prices [2]. 2026 Outlook: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global photovoltaic installations are expected to grow in 2025, with an estimated total demand for multi-crystalline silicon of approximately 114,350 tons, despite a supply surplus of about 17,650 tons due to a projected production of 132,000 tons [4]. - The domestic photovoltaic demand is anticipated to stabilize, with new installations likely not exceeding the levels of 2024 and 2025, shifting focus towards high-quality development rather than rapid growth [5][6]. - The 2026 demand scenarios suggest a range of 48,750 to 60,940 tons for domestic multi-crystalline silicon, depending on various assumptions about installation levels [6]. Industry Development Trends - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant supply-demand mismatches, with upstream price pressures from multi-crystalline silicon affecting the midstream and downstream segments [7]. - A coordinated reduction in production across the entire supply chain, from silicon materials to components, is necessary to achieve overall market balance [7]. - Current multi-crystalline silicon inventory stands at around 400,000 tons, indicating that the market has not yet reached equilibrium [9]. - The industry is expected to transition towards a healthier and more orderly development phase, focusing on sustainable growth aligned with carbon neutrality goals [9].