TMGM外汇：黄金（XAU/USD）创历史新高后，上行趋势能否延续？

Group 1 - Gold prices (XAU/USD) have surged to the $4,700 range, reaching a new historical high due to increased global market risk aversion and a temporary correction in the US dollar [1] - The demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset has intensified, driven by rising market uncertainties, which has been a key factor in pushing gold prices above previous highs [1] - The recent correction in the US dollar, which peaked since December 9, has made dollar-denominated gold more attractive to global investors, further supporting the rise in gold prices [1] Group 2 - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted, with a cooling expectation for two rate cuts in 2026, potentially providing support for the dollar and limiting its decline, which could exert pressure on non-yielding gold [1] - Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and the final GDP for the third quarter, as these indicators will influence market dynamics and the relationship between gold and the dollar [2] - The short-term upward trend in gold prices is solid, with a clear upward channel since late October, supported by technical indicators such as the MACD and RSI, although caution is advised due to the RSI nearing overbought territory [4] Group 3 - If gold prices encounter resistance at the upper channel line, the key support level will be $4,406.94, which may attract buying interest to stabilize prices [5] - A sustained breakout above the upper resistance level could lead to a continuation of the upward trend, while failure to break through may result in a consolidation within the channel [6]