日本迎“闪电大选”预期！日债收益率飙升，对冲基金疯狂做空日元

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government bond yields have surged to their highest levels in nearly 27 years, driven by market speculation that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will leverage a promise to cut food taxes as a bargaining chip for an early election [2] Group 1: Bond Market Reaction - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose to 2.275%, the highest since February 1999, while yields on 5-year, 20-year, and 30-year bonds also reached historical highs [2] - This surge in bond yields coincides with Kishida's plans to announce an early election, which is expected to provide a clear mandate for large-scale stimulus spending [2] Group 2: Tax Policy Considerations - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party is considering suspending the current 8% value-added tax on food and beverages, which could result in an additional annual loss of 5 trillion yen (approximately $31.7 billion) for the Japanese government [2] - Kishida enjoys a support rate of up to 75% in some polls, and she is expected to clarify her reasons for calling the election earlier than most analysts anticipated [2] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Currency Impact - Investors are concerned that Kishida's policies may worsen public finances, with analysts noting that there is little evidence of real pressure on the Japanese government bond market despite rising yields [3] - Hedge funds have significantly increased their bearish bets on the yen, with net short positions rising by 35,624 contracts, the largest increase since May 2015 [3] - The yen has fallen to its lowest level since July 2024, as traders speculate on Kishida's potential victory and subsequent stimulus measures, raising concerns about an expanding fiscal deficit [3]