下游需求疲软 沪锡承压下挫【1月19日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in tin prices is attributed to limited changes in the fundamentals, a recovery in supply, and a significant drop in downstream demand, leading to a correction of previously rapid price increases [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement - Tin prices fell by 5.98%, closing at 389,500 yuan/ton, following a period of price increases driven by speculative trading and surrounding commodity influences [1]. - The recent price drop is a correction after a rapid increase, with the market responding to high prices that have suppressed downstream demand [1]. Group 2: Demand Analysis - Downstream consumption remains weak, with overall consumption this year slightly lower than in previous years; short-term recovery in photovoltaic demand is expected, but production in January is anticipated to continue declining [1]. - Feedback from downstream users indicates a lack of new orders and a decrease in inventory turnover efficiency, as many end-users are hesitant to purchase due to high prices and are controlling inventory levels [1]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The supply side remains stable, with no significant adjustments in the production pace of smelters; the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan was reported at 87.09%, consistent with the previous week [1]. - Tin ore supply from Myanmar is gradually recovering, supporting high operating rates in Yunnan, but low processing fees are pressuring profits and limiting production increases [1]. - Some smelters in Jiangxi are facing production constraints due to a shortage of recycled materials, leading to continued low output of refined tin, with some manufacturers even reducing production slightly last week [1]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Short-term price declines are influenced by tightened risk controls by exchanges, which have suppressed speculative trading, and a significant increase in warehouse receipts ahead of contract delivery [2]. - The supply-demand balance remains tight, with expectations of a supply squeeze in the future, particularly with Indonesia's tin export quota projected at 60,000 tons for 2026 [2]. - There is a potential for improved inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises following the recent price correction, although the focus remains on essential stockpiling [2].