红杉资本：2026将是AGI元年，编程智能体已经打响了第一枪！

Core Insights - General Artificial Intelligence (AGI) is no longer a distant future but has become a reality with the emergence of Long-horizon agents, marking 2026 as a pivotal year for AGI [1] - The transition from conversational AI to Long-horizon agents signifies a shift from mere dialogue to actual task execution, fundamentally altering business and investment landscapes [1][7] Technological Developments - The capabilities of agents, particularly coding agents, have crossed critical thresholds, with their ability to handle complex tasks doubling approximately every seven months [2] - AGI is defined functionally as the ability to autonomously solve problems, focusing on the outcome rather than the technical definitions [3] - Long-horizon agents possess the ability to hypothesize, test, and adjust strategies in ambiguous environments, although they still face challenges such as generating hallucinations [4] Methodologies - Two primary technological paths are driving the development of Long-horizon agents: reinforcement learning and agent architectures [5][6] - Reinforcement learning focuses on maintaining long-term attention through iterative training, while agent architectures involve designing frameworks to overcome known limitations of models [6] Business Implications - The emergence of specialized agents across various sectors, such as pharmaceuticals and legal fields, indicates a significant paradigm shift for entrepreneurs [7] - The future of AI applications will transition from being mere tools to becoming "digital employees," prompting founders to rethink task delegation and pricing strategies based on outcomes rather than tools [7] - The potential for agents to handle extensive workloads, such as analyzing vast clinical trial data or reconstructing complex legal codes, is becoming increasingly feasible, transforming ambitious plans into actionable business strategies [7]