精准跑路？特朗普威胁对欧加税前夕，对冲基金已提前做空欧元

Core Viewpoint - Hedge funds have preemptively exited bullish positions on the euro ahead of geopolitical tensions related to President Trump's threats of new tariffs on European countries regarding Greenland, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards risk aversion [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - According to the CFTC, leveraged funds shifted to a slight net short position on the euro for the first time since late November, reflecting a significant change in market sentiment [1] - The announcement of potential tariffs has heightened concerns about a renewed trade war, prompting investors to reassess the potential impact on European economic growth [1] - Following the tariff announcement, the euro initially fell by 0.2% before rebounding by 0.4% to $1.1641, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined by 0.2% [1] Group 2: Technical Indicators and Future Outlook - The shift in positioning coincides with a deterioration in technical indicators, as the euro's long-term momentum signal turned negative for the first time in nearly a year, ending a 43-week bullish trend [5] - Analysts suggest that while a reversal in momentum signals does not guarantee a sell-off, it often indicates significant downside risks if the signals persist [5] - Market strategists predict that the euro may test a support level of 1.1499 due to the ongoing tensions, with expectations that the trade dispute may escalate before it cools down [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Effects and Capital Flows - The geopolitical situation presents a double-edged sword; if it evolves into a broader issue affecting the dollar, the euro may receive some support [6] - There is a potential for capital repatriation that could limit the euro's downside, despite a weakening confidence in the euro's upward potential among traders [6]