日本大选前对冲基金猛增日元空头，单周增幅创近十年之最

Group 1 - Hedge funds have significantly increased their short positions on the Japanese yen ahead of the upcoming elections, marking the largest increase in ten years, reflecting investor bets on the election outcome and its impact on fiscal policy [1][4] - According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, leveraged funds increased their net short positions on the yen by 35,624 contracts in the week ending January 13, the largest weekly increase since May 2015 [1] - The yen recently fell to its weakest level since July 2024, primarily influenced by the prospects of the Japanese temporary elections [1] Group 2 - Traders are betting on Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's potential victory in the elections, as his administration advocates for more aggressive fiscal stimulus measures, which may lead to a further widening of Japan's fiscal deficit [4] - Expectations of looser fiscal policies have diminished the yen's attractiveness, prompting hedge funds to increase their short positions [4] - The depreciation of the yen has raised market concerns about potential intervention by Japanese authorities, especially as the yen approaches the critical level of 160 yen per dollar, where previous interventions occurred [4]