两岸观察丨民进党当局“跪美”的结局与“卖台”的真相

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of Taiwan and the United States, which includes a reduction of tariffs on Taiwanese goods from 20% to 15%, is perceived as a significant compromise that undermines Taiwan's core industrial advantages, particularly in the semiconductor sector [1][3][5]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The agreement requires Taiwan to invest a total of $500 billion, with $250 billion in direct investments and $250 billion in credit guarantees, while also mandating the transfer of 40% of its semiconductor production capacity to the U.S. [1][3][10]. - The semiconductor industry, which is crucial for Taiwan's economy, is at risk as the agreement could lead to a significant loss of economic control, with potential consequences including the collapse of upstream and downstream enterprises and widespread unemployment [5][6][8]. - The profit margins for semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S. are drastically lower, with TSMC's margins dropping from 62% in Taiwan to just 8% in the U.S., making the investment economically unfeasible [3][5]. Group 2: Political and Social Reactions - The DPP's handling of the negotiations has been criticized as a "black box operation," leading to public dissatisfaction and accusations of selling out Taiwan's industrial base [6][10]. - The agreement is seen as a strategic move by the U.S. to consolidate its technological dominance while using Taiwan as a pawn in its geopolitical strategy against China [12][16]. - There is a growing sentiment that the DPP's reliance on the U.S. for economic support is detrimental, as it may lead to the hollowing out of Taiwan's industries and a loss of national pride associated with its semiconductor capabilities [8][16]. Group 3: Future Considerations - Experts suggest that the only viable solution for Taiwan's semiconductor industry is to deepen cooperation with mainland China, which could provide a more sustainable path for growth [14][16]. - The current trajectory of Taiwan's economic policy, characterized by a desire for independence and reliance on the U.S., is likely to exacerbate the challenges faced by its semiconductor sector and overall economy [16].