明晚，油价或将上调

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil retail price is expected to increase for the first time in 2026, with an adjustment window opening on January 20, 2023, due to international crude oil price fluctuations indicating a rise above the adjustment threshold of 50 yuan/ton [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The current pricing cycle for domestic refined oil has seen international crude oil prices initially rise and then fall, but the average price has increased compared to the previous cycle, with a reference crude oil change rate of 2.01% as of January 16, 2023, suggesting a potential retail price increase of 85 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel [2][3]. - Analysts predict that the retail price for 92 gasoline and 0 diesel may rise by approximately 0.07 yuan per liter if the adjustment is implemented [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - Recent data indicates that the wholesale prices for both gasoline and diesel have been declining, with 92 gasoline averaging 7279 yuan/ton (down 0.19%) and diesel at 5994 yuan/ton (down 1.54%) as of January 16, 2023 [4]. - The supply side shows an increase in gasoline production while diesel supply is decreasing, leading to a divergence in market trends, with gasoline demand expectations improving but facing inventory accumulation, while diesel demand is weakening due to seasonal factors [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The geopolitical uncertainties continue to influence short-term international crude oil prices, with OPEC+ halting production increases, suggesting ongoing support for oil market supply [4]. - Geopolitical factors remain a primary driver for the international oil market, but their impact is considered short-term and may not alter the overall downward trend in oil prices [4].