水井坊预计2025年净利润仅4亿元 渠道库存、价格、分销结构得到改善

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase due to macroeconomic cycles, industry adjustments, and policy changes, with high overall inventory levels and slow recovery in traditional consumption scenarios like business banquets [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Water Jiufang (600779) expects a revenue of 3.038 billion yuan in 2025, a 42% year-on-year decline [1] - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 392 million yuan, down 71% year-on-year, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 381 million yuan [1] Group 2: Strategic Management - The company emphasizes a management approach focused on "balancing fundamentals, deepening adjustments, and solidifying development" [1] - Water Jiufang prioritizes maintaining channel health by controlling shipment pace, optimizing inventory structure, and ensuring channel fund safety to lay a healthy foundation for future growth [1] - The company is implementing measures such as halting shipments, optimizing promotional policies, and enhancing market order management to strengthen channel confidence and price stability [2] Group 3: Long-term Development - Water Jiufang continues to invest in brand building, terminal expansion, product innovation, and organizational capabilities, aiming to improve efficiency and productivity [2] - The company believes that the performance changes in 2025 are a result of industry cycles and proactive adjustments, aligning with the logic of industry value return [2] Group 4: Brand Portfolio - Water Jiufang owns two major brands: "Water Jiufang" and "First Fang," with core products including Water Jiufang Jingtai series, Water Jiufang Jingtai Collection, and Water Jiufang Zhenniang No. 8 [2] - The company has launched new products to meet the differentiated needs of various consumer groups [2] Group 5: Market Activity - On December 25, 2025, media reported a potential acquisition of Water Jiufang, leading to a surge in its stock price, which closed at 39.8 yuan, with a total market value of 19.4 billion yuan [2] - Water Jiufang quickly issued a statement clarifying that the acquisition rumors were untrue to prevent misleading investors [3]