Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-19 13:18Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's implementation of hegemonic policies has led to further deterioration of international geopolitical situations, which is favorable for gold performance. Tactical overweighting of A/H shares, US stocks, and gold is recommended, while underweighting US bonds and oil is advised [1]. Group 1: Asset Performance and Allocation Insights - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, suggesting an overweight in A/H shares. The upcoming economic work conference and the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026 are expected to lead to further expansion of the broad deficit and more proactive economic policies. The Fed's expected rate cut in December and the stable appreciation of the RMB provide favorable conditions for monetary easing in early 2026 [2][8]. - The uncertainty surrounding the new Fed chairperson has increased market speculation regarding US monetary policy, suggesting an underweight in US bonds. The cooling labor market, declining energy prices, and slow wage growth are conducive to a decrease in endogenous inflation stickiness, allowing for more flexibility in Fed policy adjustments. The resilience of the US economy may lead to a cautious direction in Fed policy guidance, with US bond yields expected to decline moderately [2][8]. - In the context of geopolitical upheaval, gold exhibits strong resilience and safe-haven attributes, recommending an overweight in gold. The rising uncertainty in global geopolitical situations and continued central bank purchases of gold support a long-term price floor for gold. Despite speculative inflows temporarily increasing gold volatility, the price remains resilient amid the Trump administration's hegemonic policies and the erosion of US international credibility [2][8]. Group 2: Recent Important Events Review - The uncertainty regarding the Fed chair candidates has risen again, with Trump indicating that Kevin Hassett may remain in his position. This could impact market expectations for monetary policy [6][7]. - Trump's imposition of tariffs on eight European countries and the push for the purchase of Greenland has escalated geopolitical tensions, significantly undermining US international credibility and reflecting hegemonic behavior [6][7]. Group 3: Tactical Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommendation to overweight A/H shares is based on multiple supportive factors for Chinese equities, including anticipated proactive economic policies and favorable monetary conditions [9]. - An underweight in US bonds is advised due to the increasing uncertainty surrounding the new Fed chairperson and the relatively low risk-return ratio compared to risk assets [9]. - Gold is recommended for overweighting due to its strong resilience and safe-haven characteristics amid rising geopolitical uncertainties [9].