邓正红能源软实力：供应端未有实质性缺失 油价涨幅有限 短期延续震荡运行节奏

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing easing of tensions in the Middle East has alleviated concerns about potential supply disruptions, leading to limited price increases in oil, while geopolitical risks remain present [1][2][3] Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The value of oil soft power is influenced by both implicit rules (geopolitical expectations, market psychology) and explicit material factors (supply and demand fundamentals) [2] - Current geopolitical risks, particularly the threat of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, could significantly impact oil prices, potentially pushing them above $70 per barrel if tensions escalate [3][5] - The market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between rising geopolitical risks and increasing production and inventory levels, resulting in limited price movements [5] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Trump's recent actions regarding Greenland, including threats of tariffs on European countries, have negatively impacted market sentiment and increased geopolitical uncertainty [4] - The reduction of the "safety premium" in oil prices, which typically ranges from $5 to $8 per barrel, reflects a shift in investor expectations towards supply stability as geopolitical risks decrease [2][4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Interplay - The oil price fluctuations are characterized by a dual-variable model of "soft power premium" and "hard power surplus," where geopolitical conflicts elevate risk perceptions while global supply surpluses exert downward pressure on prices [5] - The current market sentiment has shifted focus from Iran to Greenland, creating downward pressure on oil prices and highlighting the dominant role of "rule power" in shaping market psychology [4][5]