又至年初，港股 AI 是否还有期待？

Core Viewpoint - The current environment of the Hong Kong stock market mirrors that of early 2025, with a potential for significant investment opportunities driven by AI applications despite weak overseas liquidity expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Market Environment - The Hong Kong stock market is at a critical juncture, similar to early 2025, where liquidity expectations are limited due to the Federal Reserve's policies, while AI applications are poised for explosive growth [2][3]. - Recent U.S. inflation data, although below expectations, has not reached a level that would prompt an immediate shift in Federal Reserve policy, indicating limited improvement in liquidity for the Hong Kong market [3]. Group 2: AI Value Reassessment - The report emphasizes a strong outlook for the reassessment of AI value in China for 2026, supported by a solid industrial catalyst timeline [6]. - The release of DeepSeek V4 during the Chinese New Year is expected to replicate last year's market surge, with increased capital expenditure from major domestic companies providing a robust foundation for model capabilities [6]. Group 3: Application Layer Developments - 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for the application layer of AI, with significant advancements expected from platform-based internet companies in China [7]. - Alibaba's AI assistant "Qianwen app" has achieved over 100 million monthly active users within two months of launch, marking a shift from model-based to application-based AI strategies [7]. Group 4: Intelligent Driving - Intelligent driving is identified as the largest AI application expected to scale in 2026, driven by significant developments in both domestic and international markets [8]. - The combination of Tesla's FSD and Grok enhances driving experiences, while regulatory changes in the U.S. signal the imminent large-scale operation of Robotaxi services [8]. Group 5: Market Data and Fund Flows - Recent fund flows indicate strong investor preference for leading technology platforms, with Tencent, Kuaishou, and Xiaomi receiving substantial net inflows [9]. - As of January 16, 2026, the Hang Seng Index PE has risen to 11.7 times, reflecting a 1.66% increase from the previous week, while Alibaba and SMIC have shown significant stock price increases, validating the positive outlook for platform companies and hardware infrastructure [9].