业绩预喜、股价难增 上市券商为何表现背离

Core Viewpoint - The first batch of brokerages has released their performance forecasts for 2025, indicating a significant increase in profits, particularly for Guolian Minsheng Securities, which expects a net profit of 2.008 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 406% [1][4]. Group 1: Performance Highlights - Guolian Minsheng Securities announced a substantial profit increase due to the acquisition of Minsheng Securities and growth in securities investment, brokerage, and wealth management [4]. - CITIC Securities reported a revenue of 74.83 billion yuan and a net profit of 30.051 billion yuan for 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 28.75% and 38.46%, respectively [4]. - Southwest Securities projected a net profit between 1.028 billion yuan and 1.098 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 47% to 57% year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Market Performance and Stock Price Trends - Despite positive earnings forecasts, brokerage stock prices have generally declined since the beginning of the year, with CITIC Securities down 2.79% and Guolian Minsheng Securities down 2.85% [7]. - The overall performance of the brokerage sector, as indicated by the CSI All Share Securities Index, has decreased by 0.78% since January [7]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Stock Price Divergence - The divergence between earnings and stock prices is attributed to four main factors: profit-taking after prior gains, a shift in investment focus towards high-dividend, low-volatility assets, lowered expectations for 2026 earnings growth, and increased margin requirements leading to a withdrawal of leveraged funds [8]. - Analysts suggest that the current market environment remains favorable for long-term investment in brokerages, with a focus on the recovery of various business lines and supportive policies [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The brokerage industry is expected to experience an "L-shaped" recovery in 2026, with growth rates likely to slow but absolute profit levels remaining high [10]. - Key indicators to monitor for assessing profitability sustainability and valuation recovery include trading volume, asset management net subscriptions, and the issuance rates of brokerage subordinated bonds [10].