猪价涨势正猛！但涨破13元/公斤后可能要放缓了，为啥？

Core Viewpoint - The pig prices in China have surged, reaching an average of 12.99 yuan/kg, with expectations of a slowdown in price increases after surpassing 13 yuan/kg due to high supply levels and limited consumer demand [2][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of the end of 2025, the national pig stock is projected to be 42.967 million heads, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, while total meat production is expected to reach 100.72 million tons, a 4.2% increase, marking the first time it exceeds 100 million tons [2]. - Pork production is estimated at 59.38 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, while poultry meat production has increased by 6.7%, indicating a competitive supply landscape [4]. Market Conditions - The current market is characterized by an early supply surge, with consumer demand not yet picking up as it is still early in the lunar month, leading to limited market absorption capacity [4]. - As pig prices rise, slaughterhouses are experiencing increased pressure, resulting in a decreased willingness to purchase at high prices [4]. Profitability and Resistance to Price Decline - The current profitability for self-breeding farmers is approximately 7.4 yuan per pig, marking a return to profitability for the first time since September of the previous year, which may lead to resistance against price declines [5][6]. - Farmers are unlikely to accept significant price drops after achieving profitability, indicating a strong psychological barrier against falling prices [6]. Supply Gaps - There remains a notable gap in the supply of medium to large pigs due to previous market fluctuations, which has not been effectively addressed [8][9]. - The lack of sufficient medium to large pigs could provide support for pig prices once consumer demand increases [9]. Future Price Outlook - Caution is advised regarding potential price increases beyond 13 yuan/kg, as both supply and demand are expected to rise, which may lead to a slowdown in price growth [10]. - Recent data indicates that the reduction in breeding capacity has slowed, with only 290,000 fewer breeding sows reported from October to December, which may impact the overall market dynamics [12].