Should Investors Be Drawn to Cheap Valuation of McDonald's Stock?

Core Viewpoint - McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is currently trading at a slight valuation discount, with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.02, below the restaurant industry average of 24.64, indicating a cautious market stance despite the company's scale and brand strength [2] Price Performance - Over the past six months, McDonald's shares have gained 4%, outperforming the broader restaurant industry, which declined by 2.1%, but lagging behind the S&P 500's 13% rally [6][10] - Several industry peers, including Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Kura Sushi USA (KRUS), and Restaurant Brands International (QSR), have experienced declines of 23.8%, 7.6%, and 0.8%, respectively [6] Factors Aiding MCD Stock - McDonald's has demonstrated resilience in its global business model, achieving solid global comparable sales growth in Q3 of fiscal 2025, supported by traffic share gains across all operating segments [10] - The company is focusing on value architecture in the U.S., relaunching Extra Value Meals and the McValue platform to improve affordability perceptions, which has shown early positive results in customer engagement and traffic trends [11] - Internationally, McDonald's is leveraging its scale and localization strategy, with positive comparable sales and market share gains in markets like Germany, Australia, and Japan, supported by disciplined pricing and targeted innovation [12] Factors Likely to Hurt MCD - Near-term macro pressures are affecting lower-income consumers, leading to a decline in quick-service restaurant visits, which is expected to persist into 2026 [13][14] - Margin pressure from elevated input costs, particularly for beef and wages, along with aggressive value investments, is creating a near-term drag on profitability [15] Growth Projections - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have increased slightly, with projected earnings per share of $12.09 and $13.29, indicating year-over-year increases of 3.2% and 9.9%, respectively [16] - Revenue estimates are pegged at $26.68 billion and $28.26 billion for 2025 and 2026, implying year-over-year improvements of 2.9% and 5.9% [17] Conclusion - McDonald's remains a stock worth holding due to its global scale, brand strength, and operational discipline, which continue to deliver steady performance in a challenging consumer environment [18] - However, new buying should be approached cautiously due to ongoing consumer spending pressures and elevated input costs, which may keep earnings growth muted in the near term [19]