Is Novo Nordisk's Oral Wegovy Driving Strong Early US Demand Already?

Core Insights - Novo Nordisk's shares increased by 9.1% following strong early prescription trends for its oral GLP-1 therapy, Wegovy, launched in the U.S. [1][9] - The initial demand for oral Wegovy indicates a promising uptake in the U.S. market, with actual sales potentially higher than reported due to the exclusion of direct-to-consumer online pharmacy data [2][9] Product Launch and Market Position - Oral Wegovy is the first oral GLP-1 drug approved in the U.S., priced at $149 per month without insurance, and contains the same active ingredient, semaglutide, as its injectable counterparts [3] - The launch of oral Wegovy provides Novo Nordisk with a first-mover advantage in the oral GLP-1 segment, allowing it to potentially regain market share from Eli Lilly [5] Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly is a key competitor, marketing its GLP-1 injections and seeking FDA approval for its oral GLP-1 drug, orforglipron, which has faced a delayed decision [4][5] - The delay in FDA approval for Eli Lilly's orforglipron gives Novo Nordisk additional time to solidify its position in the oral obesity market [5][9] Market Potential - Goldman Sachs estimates that oral GLP-1 pills could generate approximately $22 billion in sales by 2030, representing about 25% of a projected $95 billion global obesity drug market [5] - The approval of a higher dose of Wegovy injection in the UK may enhance its efficacy profile, potentially shifting demand from Eli Lilly's Zepbound to Wegovy [6] Industry Trends - The obesity treatment market is gaining attention due to its significant growth potential, with various companies, including smaller biotech firms, developing competing GLP-1 therapies [8]