Loan Growth, Higher Fee Income to Support Truist's Q4 Earnings

Core Viewpoint - Truist Financial (TFC) is expected to report strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, driven by solid lending demand and net interest income (NII) growth despite recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][3][10]. Lending and Income Estimates - Demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans, which make up nearly 50% of TFC's total loans, was decent in the quarter, alongside solid consumer loan demand, which accounts for almost 40% [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TFC's average earning assets is $490.4 billion, reflecting a 3.7% increase from the prior year [2]. - NII is projected to rise by 3.2% to $3.71 billion, supported by robust loan demand and lower deposit costs [3][10]. Non-Interest Income - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-interest income is $1.57 billion, indicating a 6.5% rise year-over-year, with significant contributions from various fee income segments [8][10]. - Service charges on deposits are estimated at $240.9 million, a 1.7% increase, while card and payment-related fees are expected to reach $231.1 million, showing marginal growth [5]. - Investment banking and trading income is projected to be $323.8 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 23.6% [7]. Mortgage Banking and Expenses - Mortgage banking income is expected to rise to $117.4 million, slightly up from the previous year, due to declining mortgage rates and decent refinancing activity [6]. - Non-interest expenses are anticipated to continue rising due to technology investments and inflationary pressures, with management expecting adjusted expenses to remain stable sequentially [9]. Asset Quality and Earnings Outlook - The consensus estimate for total non-accrual loans and leases is $1.87 billion, indicating a 30.6% year-over-year increase, while total non-performing assets are also expected to rise by 26.6% to $1.87 billion [11]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TFC's earnings is $1.09 per share, reflecting a growth of 19.8% from the previous year, with sales projected at $5.27 billion, a 4.1% increase [14][15]. 2025 Outlook - Management anticipates revenue growth of 1.5-2.5% from adjusted revenues of $20.1 billion in 2024, with adjusted expenses expected to increase by about 1% [16].