Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-19 16:53Group 1 - The report focuses on the trends of Hong Kong stock IPOs and lock-up expirations in 2026, analyzing their impact on market performance and sector volatility [1][18] - In 2025, Hong Kong's IPO market performed strongly with 117 IPOs raising HKD 285.9 billion, regaining the top position globally, benefiting from the HKEX's Chapter 18A and 18C policies [1][18] - As of January 10, 2026, there are 300 companies queued for IPOs, primarily in technology and healthcare sectors, with expectations that the 2026 IPO fundraising will exceed HKD 300 billion [1][18] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that peaks in IPOs and fundraising do not reverse the trend of the Hong Kong stock market, as seen in previous bull markets during 2010 and 2014-2015 [2][25] - The real market impact is often felt six months post-IPO due to the lock-up expiration of cornerstone investors, which historically coincides with market downturns, although exceptions occurred in 2025 [2][8] - Significant lock-up expirations are expected in March and September 2026, with over HKD 30 billion in large companies' shares set to be released, and September's expirations could reach approximately HKD 400 billion [2][34] Group 3 - Recent capital flow data shows a decrease in northbound trading volume while southbound trading has turned net inflow, with foreign investments focusing on companies like Xiaomi and Kuaishou [3] - The trend indicates a shift in foreign capital from A-shares to H-shares, with notable inflows into developed European markets and outflows from the US and Japanese markets [3]