特朗普放话全球围堵中国，180天内必须回应，盟友若不配合就加税！

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is initiating a strategic action to reshape the global rare earth supply chain through an executive order requiring key mineral suppliers to reach agreements with the U.S. within 180 days, or face tariffs. This move is not merely an economic adjustment but a geopolitical maneuver aimed at altering the power dynamics in the rare earth market [1]. Group 1: U.S. Strategy and Actions - The U.S. is attempting to reduce its reliance on China, which currently dominates over 70% of the global rare earth processing market, by establishing a tactical window of 180 days for negotiations [1][9]. - The U.S. Congress has proposed a $25 billion fund to support domestic rare earth companies in building processing facilities and expanding strategic reserves [3]. - The U.S. is also promoting the Pax Silica initiative, which aims to create an exclusive technology alliance among allies, covering not just rare earths but also semiconductors and military materials [5]. Group 2: International Reactions and Collaborations - Australia has allocated AUD 1.2 billion to establish a national strategic mineral reserve, focusing on key materials like antimony, gallium, and rare earths, and plans to expand domestic mining [2]. - The collaboration between the U.S. and Australia aims to create an alternative supply chain that bypasses China, although Japan and the EU are more cautious due to their deep integration with Chinese supply chains [8][9]. - The U.S. strategy faces challenges as allies weigh their own industrial interests against political pressures, with concerns about the costs and risks of shifting supply chains [8][32]. Group 3: Challenges in Supply Chain Restructuring - The U.S. strategy highlights the difficulty of replicating China's cost control and technological maturity in rare earth processing, as the U.S. lacks a complete domestic processing chain [9][20]. - The proposed dual-track approach involves geographical diversification for raw materials and price interventions to weaken China's competitive pricing, but the processing capabilities remain a significant bottleneck [6][17]. - The complexity of manufacturing and the need for a robust industrial ecosystem mean that the U.S. will struggle to achieve a complete domestic supply chain within the 180-day timeframe [41]. Group 4: Long-term Implications and Market Dynamics - The ongoing competition for rare earths reflects a broader struggle for industrial integrity, with the U.S. possessing capital and military power but lacking midstream manufacturing capabilities [20][21]. - China's dominance in the rare earth market is attributed to decades of accumulated expertise and market selection, making it difficult for the U.S. to disrupt this established order [45][46]. - The narrative of "decoupling" from China may be politically appealing, but the reality of supply chain interdependence complicates this goal, as complete separation is not in the interest of any party involved [49][50].