供应宽松与需求淡季局面延续 短纤静待春节后破局

Core Viewpoint - The short fiber market is currently in a downward adjustment phase, driven by weakened cost support and persistent weak demand, with prices expected to maintain a range-bound pattern above the 60-day moving average [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since the peak price of short fiber contracts on December 26, 2025, the market has entered a volatile downward channel, with current prices supported at the 60-day moving average [1] - The processing profit margins in the short fiber industry have been continuously compressed, leading to many companies operating below cash flow cost lines, which has made production rates a key self-regulating mechanism in the market [2] - As of January 15, 2026, domestic short fiber profits were reported at -155.65 yuan/ton, showing a 39.17% increase from the beginning of 2026, indicating a marginal improvement due to stabilization in upstream raw material prices [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Balance - The short fiber industry’s operating rate rebounded to 90.86% in the third week of 2026, with weekly production reaching 173,200 tons, reflecting the effectiveness of the "profit-operating rate" adjustment mechanism [5] - The main market contradiction has shifted from the direct conflict between cost pressure and processing profits to the balance between rapid supply elasticity and actual terminal demand capacity [5] Group 3: Seasonal Demand Trends - The downstream textile industry is entering a systematic contraction phase ahead of the Spring Festival, leading to a rapid decrease in demand for short fibers due to seasonal production slowdowns and a gap in new orders [6] - The market's turning point is expected to occur post-Spring Festival, with demand recovery dependent on the scale and timing of new spring orders and strategic inventory adjustments by downstream enterprises [6] Group 4: Cost Fluctuations - Short fiber prices are highly correlated with PTA and ethylene glycol prices, with a correlation coefficient above 0.85, primarily influenced by crude oil market dynamics [7] - Global oil inventory pressures and supply surplus are expected to suppress oil price levels, but geopolitical risks could lead to short-term volatility in oil prices, affecting PTA and short fiber cost trends [7] - The short fiber market is likely to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term, with ongoing supply looseness and seasonal demand weakness, awaiting new driving factors for market direction [7]