多重因素驱动 沪铝价格中枢有望上移

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - The global economy is characterized as "stable but fragile," with the IMF projecting a growth rate of approximately 3.1% [2] - The cautious monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve is expected to support commodity prices, including aluminum, by enhancing liquidity and exerting pressure on the dollar [2] - Domestic policies for 2026 emphasize stability and proactive measures, with an expected continuation of moderately loose monetary policy and more aggressive fiscal policies aimed at major projects and infrastructure [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global electrolytic aluminum supply is entering a low-elasticity growth phase, with rigid constraints becoming the core issue [4] - Overseas supply faces risks of reduction in existing capacity, while new capacity growth is hindered by systemic challenges [4] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production is projected to reach 44.8 million tons in 2026, with a growth rate of 1.4%, indicating a significant slowdown compared to previous years [5] Group 3: Cost Structure and Profitability - The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to maintain high profits in 2026, but internal differentiation will intensify [6] - Alumina prices are expected to decline due to a relaxed supply, contributing to cost advantages, while electricity prices may rise slightly, increasing cost disparities among companies [6] - Companies with stable low-cost electricity structures are likely to maintain a competitive edge in terms of costs and profits [6] Group 4: Demand Trends - Demand for aluminum is increasingly focused on green and high-end manufacturing sectors, with significant contributions from energy transition investments and the automotive sector [7] - The trend of "aluminum replacing copper" is accelerating in various industries, driven by cost and policy factors [7] - The aluminum market is expected to enter a new cycle defined by supply constraints and green demand, with prices likely to rise throughout the year despite potential pressures in the latter half [7]