手握10万亿美元美国股债资产，打一场“资本战”，欧洲敢吗？

Core Viewpoint - The potential for Europe to leverage its over $10 trillion in U.S. assets amid Trump's tariff threats has become a significant market concern [1][2]. Group 1: European Assets and Market Reactions - The majority of U.S. assets held by Europe are owned by private funds, making it challenging for European governments to control or force the sale of these assets [2][3]. - If Europe were to weaponize its U.S. assets, it would escalate the trade conflict into a financial confrontation, impacting capital markets directly [2][3]. - Following the announcement of tariffs, market tensions have already emerged, with U.S. stock futures, European markets, and the dollar under pressure, while gold and safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and euro have benefited [2]. Group 2: Challenges of Asset Weaponization - The European Union faces significant obstacles in attempting to force private investors to sell U.S. assets, as the primary focus of sovereign wealth funds is on commercial and risk factors rather than political considerations [4]. - A large-scale strategic sell-off of U.S. assets would likely result in a "negative-sum game," harming both the European investors and the broader market [4]. - Analysts suggest that the likelihood of European policymakers taking extreme measures against U.S. assets is low, as it could damage their own investment interests [4]. Group 3: Possible European Responses - Goldman Sachs outlines three potential response pathways for the EU: postponing the EU-U.S. trade agreement, imposing tariffs on U.S. goods worth €93 billion ($108 billion), or utilizing the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) [5][6][8]. - The ACI allows the EU to implement a range of non-tariff countermeasures, including investment restrictions and taxation on foreign assets, indicating a shift from traditional tariff responses [8][10]. - Initiating the ACI does not mean immediate implementation of countermeasures, but it signals a strategic shift in the EU's approach to economic coercion [10].