Tai Mei Ti A P P·2026-01-20 01:20Core Viewpoint - The main uncertainty for achieving profitability in 2026 for battery manufacturers stems from rising upstream raw material costs, which cannot be fully passed on to downstream customers, leading to significant challenges in profit margins [3]. Group 1: Raw Material Price Trends - The price of lithium carbonate has sharply increased from less than 60,000 yuan per ton in mid-2025 to over 130,000 yuan by the end of 2025, continuing to rise into 2026, with a cumulative increase of over 33,000 yuan per ton (over 25%) from early January 2026 [4]. - Phosphate iron lithium prices have experienced a dramatic decline of over 80% from 173,000 yuan per ton at the end of 2022 to 34,000 yuan in August 2025, leading to widespread losses in the industry [4]. Group 2: Cost Transmission Challenges - Battery manufacturers face difficulties in passing on rising costs to customers due to a potential slowdown in demand, with car manufacturers becoming less tolerant of cost increases [5]. - Key raw materials like lithium carbonate, copper, and hexafluorophosphate can be smoothly transmitted to downstream customers due to established price linkage agreements, while costs for non-bulk materials like separators and graphite must be absorbed by battery manufacturers [6]. Group 3: Export Tax Policy Changes - The export tax rebate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% starting April 2026, with a complete cancellation planned for January 2027, significantly impacting profit margins for battery manufacturers relying on cost advantages for exports [7][8]. - Companies must navigate two strategies: negotiating price increases with overseas customers and pursuing localized production to mitigate the impact of reduced export rebates [8]. Group 4: Solid-State Battery Development - Despite being seen as a critical year for solid-state battery commercialization, industry experts express skepticism about the feasibility of large-scale production within the next 5 to 8 years due to significant technical challenges [10][11]. - Current industry focus should prioritize improving existing battery performance and safety rather than chasing the uncertain future of solid-state technology [11]. Group 5: Emerging Market Opportunities - The demand for unmanned delivery logistics vehicles is expected to surge, driven by the need to reduce logistics costs and comply with urban regulations [12]. - Southeast Asia's electric two- and three-wheeler market presents a significant growth opportunity, requiring high-performance batteries tailored to local conditions [12]. - The global electric tool market is projected to grow steadily at around 20% annually, providing a stable supplementary business for battery manufacturers [12]. Group 6: Strategic Industry Outlook - The battery industry in 2026 faces complex challenges, requiring companies to balance cost absorption with finding new revenue streams in international markets [13]. - Future winners in the industry will likely be those who can strategically navigate cost pressures and identify profitable opportunities rather than simply focusing on scale [13].