期货日报：利好汇集，黄金配置价值仍存

Core Viewpoint - The global monetary easing cycle is expected to continue into 2026, supporting a strong outlook for gold due to reserve demand, safe-haven demand, and allocation demand [1]. Monetary Policy Easing - The monetary easing cycle includes both monetary and fiscal policies, with the Federal Reserve likely to implement and extend easing measures in 2025 and 2026, including interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion [3]. - Weak non-farm data and lack of inflation rebound in the U.S. will prompt the Fed to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts, which will lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [3]. Reserve Demand - The restructuring of the global monetary order continues, with major central banks increasing gold reserves to hedge against potential credit crises [4]. - The ongoing monetary easing by central banks creates excess liquidity, benefiting gold as a monetary asset [4]. Safe-Haven Demand - The upcoming U.S. midterm elections in 2026 and ongoing global political uncertainties will sustain strong safe-haven demand for gold as investors seek to hedge risks [5]. - The likelihood of continued tension in global trade relations and a multipolar political landscape will further support gold's appeal [5]. Allocation Demand - Strong allocation demand for gold persists, with significant capital inflows into the market, as gold serves as a foundational asset for optimizing portfolios and hedging risks [6]. - Global gold ETF holdings are nearing historical highs, indicating robust demand for gold as a hedge against market volatility [6]. Bull Market Outlook - The combination of monetary easing, safe-haven demand, reserve demand, and allocation demand suggests that the gold bull market may not be over [7]. - There is a high possibility of gold prices rising further, with potential for increased volatility, especially if the U.S. economy remains weak and the Fed continues its easing policies [8].