2026黄金行业专题报告：黄金供需重构下的机遇，历史复盘与未来定价逻辑展望

Core Insights - The report from Huafu Securities outlines the historical trajectory and future pricing logic of gold, emphasizing its unique position as a non-yielding asset with commodity, currency, and financial attributes [1][2] - The supply and demand dynamics of gold are undergoing significant restructuring, influenced by global macroeconomic changes and increasing financial market uncertainties [1][3] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Global gold supply has seen slow growth over the past decade, with mine production growth significantly slowing since 2016. Recycled gold has become an important variable in adjusting supply [1][15] - From 2010 to 2024, global gold supply increased from 4,317 tons to 4,957 tons, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1%. In 2024, supply is expected to grow by 0.3% year-on-year, reaching a new high [15][31] - The production of mined gold increased from 2,755 tons in 2010 to 3,645 tons in 2024, but growth has slowed since 2016 due to declining resource grades and stricter environmental policies [17][20] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The demand for gold has shifted from traditional jewelry manufacturing to investment demand and central bank purchases, with investment demand significantly increasing by 24% in 2024 [33][35] - In 2025, investment demand surged by 87% to 1,566 tons, accounting for 42% of total demand, marking a significant shift where investment demand surpassed jewelry demand for the second time in the 2010-2025 period [35][41] - The demand for gold in technology applications has decreased, with its share falling to 7% in 2024, influenced by rising investment demand and central bank purchases [35][41] Group 3: Historical Context - The report reviews over 200 years of gold price history, highlighting its role as a safe haven during periods of economic turmoil, such as the oil crises and the global financial crisis [2][3] - Key historical phases include the gold standard, the Bretton Woods system, and the impact of various economic crises, which have all shaped gold's pricing dynamics [2][3] Group 4: Future Pricing Drivers - The report identifies two core drivers for future gold prices: interest rates and the evolution of dollar credit. Lower real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, supporting price increases [3][41] - The ongoing expansion of fiscal deficits and debt levels poses challenges to the long-term stability of the dollar, while central banks diversifying their reserves by increasing gold holdings serves as a strategic hedge against the existing monetary system [3][41]