东吴证券：垃圾焚烧海外市场空间广阔 板块提ROE逻辑持续兑现

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates that the daily waste generation in the ASEAN 10 countries and India reaches 1.46 million tons, presenting a significant investment opportunity of approximately 250 billion yuan in waste incineration projects [1] Group 1: Market Potential - The overseas market for waste incineration is vast, with an estimated investment space of about 250 billion yuan in the ASEAN 10 countries and India [1] - Assuming a 50% incineration penetration rate, the daily incineration capacity could reach 496,900 tons, leading to an investment potential of approximately 248.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Revenue Analysis - High processing fees and electricity prices significantly enhance the revenue per ton for overseas projects, with projected revenues of 268 yuan per ton for domestic projects compared to 324 yuan, 413 yuan, and 582 yuan for projects in Kyrgyzstan, Vietnam, and Indonesia respectively [2] - The revenue increase percentages for these overseas projects are 21%, 54%, and 117% respectively, driven by high processing fees and electricity prices [2] Group 3: Indonesia's Policy and Economic Model - Indonesia is shifting its waste management model from local to national control, with a focus on a fixed electricity price of $0.20 per kWh for 30 years [3] - The country plans to build 33 waste-to-energy plants nationwide, with a total investment of approximately $5.6 billion, each capable of processing about 1,000 tons per day [3] - The first batch of waste-to-energy project tenders is set to launch by November 2025, covering seven regions with expedited approval processes [3] Group 4: Profitability Metrics - Economic assessments show that domestic projects yield a net profit margin of 27.71% and an ROE of 14.51%, while Indonesian projects can achieve significantly higher margins and returns [4] - For Indonesian old projects, the net profit margin is 27.71% with an ROE of 14.84%, while new projects can achieve a net profit margin of 30.23% and an ROE of 17.04% [4] Group 5: Cost Management Impact - The return on equity (ROE) for Indonesian projects is highly sensitive to cost management, with potential increases to 31.44% if the investment cost per ton is reduced from 1 million yuan to 700,000 yuan [5] - A decrease in financing costs by 1% can increase ROE by 1.82%, indicating the importance of managing both investment and financing costs [5] - If operational costs align with domestic levels, ROE could improve by 2.39 percentage points to 19.43% [6]