年末需求进入淡季,关注供给改善品种 | 投研报告
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-20 01:51

Group 1: Cement Industry - The national market is gradually entering the off-season, with overall demand showing a downward trend, particularly in the housing construction market, while infrastructure demand is regionally differentiated under policy influence, and the civil market shows relatively rigid demand [1] - In the medium term, the cement industry's capacity is expected to continue declining under policies limiting overproduction, leading to a significant increase in capacity utilization and profit elasticity [1] - Key companies to watch include Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [1] Group 2: Glass Industry - The demand side is experiencing a continuous decline in 2025 due to the impact of real estate, with short-term demand during the traditional peak season showing limited improvement and high inventory levels among intermediaries [1] - The supply side faces ongoing supply-demand contradictions, and despite recent cold repairs of multiple production lines, prices are expected to remain low and fluctuate in the short term [1] - Key company to watch is Qibin Group [1] Group 3: Glass Fiber Industry - As the year-end approaches, many pool kiln factories focus on cash collection, resulting in weak performance in middle and downstream deliveries [2] - The supply side sees the completion of cold repairs at China Jushi's production line, with a resurgence in production; the electronic yarn segment is thriving due to demand from the AI industry, leading to a rise in both volume and price for low dielectric products [2] - Key companies to watch include China Jushi and China National Building Material [2] Group 4: Consumer Building Materials - The industry has reached a profitability bottom, with prices having no downward space after years of competition; there is a strong demand for price increases and profit improvement driven by anti-involution policies [2] - In 2025, multiple categories such as waterproofing, coatings, and gypsum boards are expected to issue price increase notices, with anticipated profit improvements for leading companies in 2026 [2] - Key companies to watch include Oriental Yuhong, Sankeshu, Beixin Building Materials, and Rabbit Baby [2] Group 5: Market Overview - In the past week (January 12–18), the main index performance was as follows: the Shenwan Building Materials Industry Index decreased by 0.67%, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.14%, the ChiNext Index increased by 1.00%, and the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.57% [2] - Among the 31 first-level sub-industry indices in Shenwan, the building materials sector ranked 18th in terms of performance [2]