KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-20 02:05Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a price rebound, with the average retail price of the top ten liquor products rising, indicating a structural fluctuation in the market despite low trading volumes [1][2]. Price Trends - On January 20, the total retail price for a package of the top ten liquor products reached 8915 yuan, an increase of 44 yuan from the previous day [1]. - Eight out of the ten products saw price increases, with Qinghua Lang leading with a rise of 12 yuan, followed by Xijiu Junpin with an 11 yuan increase, and Gujing Gonggu 20 with a 9 yuan increase [1][6]. - The two products that experienced price declines were Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye Pu Wubai Dai, which fell by 3 yuan and 2 yuan, respectively [1][6]. Market Data Collection - The price data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, ensuring a comprehensive and objective representation of the market [2]. Industry Insights - CICC's report indicates that Kweichow Moutai is advancing its market-oriented transformation to strengthen its pricing power and adapt to industry changes, which may enhance its market influence and solidify its leading position [3]. - The report predicts that leading liquor companies will accelerate the elimination of weaker brands and outdated capacities, thereby increasing industry concentration and facilitating market clearing [3]. - CICC maintains its profit forecast for 2025 but has reduced the 2026 profit forecast by 2.8% to 904.7 billion yuan, while introducing a new forecast for 2027 at 915.9 billion yuan [3].