泡泡玛特的三个潜在预期差

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart is facing market concerns regarding its growth sustainability due to fluctuations in high-frequency data and discussions about the second-hand market prices, but there are three key discrepancies in market expectations that create valuation opportunities [1]. Group 1: Market Resilience and Sales Dynamics - The decline in overseas online sales, particularly from TikTok Shop, is overstated, as overall channel performance remains resilient. For instance, TikTok Shop's sales in the U.S. dropped approximately 10% quarter-on-quarter, but this does not account for the recovery of physical store sales, which had previously been impacted by stock shortages [3][6]. - In Southeast Asia, while TikTok sales in Thailand are under pressure, the number of physical stores has doubled, indicating a shift from online to flagship stores, which reflects channel optimization rather than a decline in popularity [6]. Group 2: IP Portfolio Diversification - There is a misconception that Pop Mart overly relies on the Labubu IP. Internal data shows that the diversification of its IP matrix is progressing faster than perceived, with Labubu's sales share in domestic channels dropping to around 30% in Q4, while new IPs like Starry and Crybaby are gaining traction [11][13]. - In Indonesia, Labubu's online sales share has fallen below 40%, with new IPs collectively accounting for over 50% of sales, highlighting the growing importance of these new characters [15]. Group 3: Transition to an IP Ecosystem Company - The market tends to value Pop Mart as a toy company, focusing on monthly sales data, while it is transitioning into a content-driven IP group. The company is actively developing content, including an animated series and a film adaptation of Labubu by Sony Pictures [19][20]. - The expansion of Beijing's theme park and new business ventures are part of building a more comprehensive ecosystem that connects deeply with fans, which has not yet been reflected in the current stock price [23].