国海证券：维持煤炭开采行业“推荐”评级 建议把握低位煤炭板块价值属性

Core Viewpoint - The new U.S. tariff policy has impacted market sentiment, leading investors to seek stable assets, with coal's high dividend and cash cow attributes gaining attention. The coal mining industry's supply constraints remain unchanged, while demand may fluctuate, indicating a dynamic price rebalancing. Historically, coal prices have shown an upward trend, and long-term price increases are expected despite potential volatility. Leading coal companies exhibit strong asset quality and cash flow, characterized by high profitability, cash flow, barriers to entry, dividends, and safety margins. The recommendation is to capitalize on the value attributes of the coal sector at low levels, maintaining a "recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1]. Supply Side - In December, coal production decreased by 1.0% year-on-year, with a larger decline compared to November, attributed to year-end production task completions and mine reductions. The total industrial raw coal output for December was 440 million tons, with a daily average of 14.1 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 129,000 tons per day and a year-on-year decrease of 59,000 tons per day. For the entire year, the output was 4.83 billion tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.2%, with a slight decrease in growth rate compared to the previous month [2]. Import Side - Coal imports in December increased by 11.90% year-on-year, significantly exceeding market expectations, driven by the price competitiveness of imported coal and anticipations of export tariffs from Indonesia. December imports reached 58.6 million tons, marking a historical high. For the entire year, imports totaled 490 million tons, down 9.60% year-on-year. The overall supply growth in December was calculated at 0.5% year-on-year, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from November [3]. Demand Side - December saw a decline in thermal power generation, while chemical and coke sectors continued to show positive growth. The year-on-year decrease in thermal power was 3.2%, but the decline was less severe than in November. Total industrial electricity generation for December was 858.6 billion kWh, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year. For the year, thermal power generation decreased by 1.0%, while other energy sources like hydropower and solar power showed varying growth rates [4]. Inventory - By the end of December, coal inventories at ports increased, with a notable rise in thermal coal stocks. The inventory of thermal coal at ports rose by 1.308 million tons to 28.406 million tons, while the inventory of coking coal also saw an increase. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 731 yuan per ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 11.00% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.80% [7]. Summary - Overall, December's supply side saw an increase in imports against a backdrop of declining production, while demand remained weak primarily due to thermal power reductions. The coal market is characterized by high inventories and declining prices, with expectations of tightening supply leading into the Lunar New Year. The coal price is anticipated to find support due to upcoming demand from cold weather and pre-holiday stockpiling [8].