开年最惨，美国软件股崩了，因为Claude Code太火了

Core Viewpoint - The release of Claude Code has intensified concerns about the disruption of the software industry by AI, leading to a significant decline in U.S. software stocks, marking one of the worst starts to a year in recent history [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since the beginning of the year, a basket of SaaS stocks tracked by Morgan Stanley has dropped by 15%, following an 11% decline in 2025, representing the worst opening performance since 2022 [1]. - Software stocks are currently trading at a record low valuation of 18 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, significantly below the past decade's average of over 55 times [1]. - Companies like ServiceNow Inc. have seen their stock prices fall to multi-year lows, while Intuit Inc. experienced a 16% drop, the largest weekly decline since 2022 [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Many buy-side institutions believe there is "no reason to hold" software stocks amid the disruptive uncertainty brought by AI, with no visible catalysts for valuation recovery in the short term [4][6]. - The capabilities demonstrated by the new AI tool, Claude Cowork, have heightened bearish sentiment among investors, as they struggle to assess future growth prospects [6]. Group 3: AI Integration Challenges - Most software manufacturers have not yet shown significant appeal in their AI products, with Salesforce and Adobe struggling to translate AI integration into revenue growth [7]. - The earnings growth forecast for software and services companies in the S&P 500 is expected to slow from approximately 19% in 2025 to 14% in 2026, contrasting with more optimistic projections for other tech sectors [7]. Group 4: Diverging Outlooks - Despite low valuations, there is a divide in market sentiment regarding the future of software stocks, with some analysts optimistic about a rebound in 2026 due to stable customer spending and attractive valuations [8]. - Barclays anticipates a turning point for software stocks in 2026, while Goldman Sachs expects increased AI adoption to expand the total addressable market for software companies [8]. Group 5: Future Considerations - While the software sector appears more attractive, concerns about the existential threat posed by AI will likely persist for some time, indicating that it may not yet be a clear buying opportunity [9].